THE TURKEY ROLE IN SOUTH CAUCASUS PEACE

Just recently the President of the Turkey –Abdullah Gul was in Armenia based on an invitation by his Armenia counterpart -Serzh Sargsyan. The reason for the invitation was because of a fifa scheduled world cup qualification between Armenia and Turkey. It is no secret that a friction exists in the relationship between Turkey and Armenia and the consequence is that both nations had cut contacts for more than 8o years. Therefore, a historical visit of this kind is worthy of good acclamation.

Turkey neighbors virtually all the South Caucasian nations: Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. The events of the region somehow has involved Turkey; for instance –the problem between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory. The Armenia views Turkey, a close ally to Azerbaijan because both share same historical origin, as an enemy. Also, Armenia and Georgia has got its own share of problems over territory divide and the Georgians incline more to the Turks for relationship due to the good relationship Armenia already enjoys with the mighty Russia Republic.

With the increase in status of Turkey nation, the Turkey is invariably assuming a reconciling role in the South Caucasus. Turkey role is very encouraging because Russia who should be in a better position to establish the South Caucasus peace is quite still nursing grudges over the failed Soviet Republics and feels threatened by the more than normal friendliness between the nations of the South Caucasus and the West.

Turkey is trying to join to the European Union, and it must be said that the Turks stand a very good chance to become a member. The practice of its democracy is quit recommendable, order than the noticeable corruption in Turkey nation, the societal fundamental principles is a good example for Islamic nations to emulate. However, the Turkey problem with the Armenia has remained a negating factor to their EU pathway. Armenia has been good in convincing the major EU player like France and UK to consider the Turkey/Armenia conflict as a one way aggression –Genocidal act over the minority Armenians.

The new Turkey role goes a long way in creating a South Caucasus peace and such movies should be exploited by those who have tried to establish peace in this part of the world. Armenia sees Turkey as a strategic partner that’s why it stretches a friendly gesture. Azerbaijan recognizes itself as a Turkish nation and therefore has a very cordial relationship with Turkey. This relationship is the reason for the high respect the Azerbaijan Republic has for its Turkey neighbor. It is only Turkey that has the ability to bring the Armenians, the Georgians, and the Azerbaijan in unity. The role of the OSCE, the Minsk groups, the EU, etc, though recommendable, we can only truly see how very vital Turkey is to the long presumed peace of the South Caucasus region.

DEMOCRATS –OBAMA OR REPUBLICAN –MC CAIN: WHO SHOULD AZERBAIJAN TRUST?

There is no doubt that the United States election is generating heat all across the globe just as it is in the USA. Cutting across continents divides: Australia, Canada, China, Norway, Nigeria, Venezuela and even Azerbaijan; everyone is keenly following the outcomes of the election.

Democrat or Republican, they have always had different ideas and policies for the Caucasus region of Europe. Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia are the southern Caucasians in this region.

The south Caucasus is very strategic to the USA foreign policies. Georgia and Armenia is a Christian populated nations. With particular reference to Armenia, it has a big population of Armenians in the USA with many of them good lobbyist in the political system of the United States. Georgians too are quite sizeable in the United States; a good reference is the current president of the Georgia Republic -Saakasvili who is a darling son of the US government and had his education in the United States.

However Azerbaijan is different and does not possess the above characteristics. Azerbaijan has Islam as its state religion with about 98% of its population as Muslims; other than the Azerbaijan Republic itself, another place where you will find the Azerbaijanis in large number is the Islamic Republic of Iran. Even the Iranian Azerbaijan is about 5 times the total population of the present day Azerbaijan Republic which is national population is estimated at about 8million.

Therefore who should the Azerbaijan trust between Obama and Mc Cain to protect its interest?

Azerbaijan is a major exporter of oil; in fact, the Azerbaijan territory is able to supply Europe with a large quantity of Oil and gas to effectively nullify the Russia stronghold on oil and gas sector and European dependency on Russia supply. Azerbaijan is a good partner with the European allies of the United States in this regards.

Also Azerbaijan is an ally in the USA fight against terror through its troop activities in the Afghanistan and Iraq war.

There is however the re-occurring straining factors in the America relationship with Azerbaijan and that is the un-resolved conflict between her neighbor Armenia. Although with recent development form this part of the world, that is, Russia bullish acts against Georgia, Azerbaijan will not mind to strongly court the America relationship in respective of the unresolved territorial dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azerbaijan remains passionate about its territory under occupation by Armenia and hopes to reclaim it back, but with the recent Russia aggressive policies, a more bounded relationship with the world most powerful nation will be a step not to flinch away from.

So Republican -Mc Cain or Democratic –Obama; which of these will ensure that Azerbaijan benefits from the America strength and still not be short-changed on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue?

Mc Cain has spoken vehemently against Russia during the Russia brief attacks on Georgia and has openly criticized Russia. On the other hand, Obama has tried to play politics with the issue and try to sound as safe as he can in his statements regarding the issue. The Azerbaijanis views Obama as a politician who depicts the exact United States politicians, perhaps democrats, who will always tell the people what they like to hear instead of coming out categorically on issues and remain on the stands. A good example that resurfaces in the minds of the Azerbaijanis is that Obama during his early campaigns had met a group of Armenians Community in USA and had promised them to recognize the Nagorno-Karabakh as an Armenia territory.

The Azerbaijan government and its general population clearly know who will defend her territory and yet still not make Azerbaijan to compromise. Even if the element of doubt exist though over the religious issue on the support of the United States in this region, the Azerbaijan people know that a Republican -Mc Cain who is not afraid to make bold proclamation against Russia over the Georgia incident will also not fail to support Azerbaijan should they face a similar crisis. Not to say that Russia is all that matters most in the Azerbaijan society but its still holds a top priority in the issues from this part of the world.