Russia and the politics of the South Caucasus with emphasis on the Armenia and Azerbaijan Conflict

Russia is always steadfast as to where its support lies as regards the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Whereas other super power Nations concerned in the matter have always emphasized in pure stands about the sovereignty of Azerbaijan over its territory, Russia has always remained dumb to this regards. Could it be that the silence of Russia is a deliberate act to pervert the truth on the issue?

Russia has never hidden its position particularly towards the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh regions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. As a key role player in the OSCE MINSK group, Russia has always opposed every policy that had supported Azerbaijan claims to the territories of the Nagorno-Karabakh areas. Russia has always stalled all international efforts to resolve the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh and its environs.

During the just concluded NATO meeting in Bucharest, Romania, Vladimir Putin was very outright in his insistence that nations like Georgia should not be allowed as members of the NATO. The reason for his strong opposition is that simple; Russia will go to any length on anything in order to prevent any foreign policy that will consequentially increase the strength of its neighboring republics such as Georgia, Azerbaijan which Moscow will identify as a threat to Russia Republic.

Just recently, in a resolution over the Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict, the United Nations in a general Assembly ordered Armenia to withdraw its forces from all occupied territory of Azerbaijan although this resolution was non-bidding, none the less Azerbaijan has always remained faithful to the outcomes of resolutions of international bodies such as UN, OSCE and EC. Notwithstanding the stands of the co-chair of the OSCE MINSK group in not recognizing the UN resolution, Azerbaijan has assured to continue to remain on the path of the peace talk; however if pushed, Azerbaijan has also not ruled out using force to reclaim its territory from Armenia.

In a recent development President of Armenia Robert Kocharyan is saying his country will recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh and sign agreements with it. Armenia knows where its strength lies; had it not been for Russia backing, Armenia would have considered how destructive such statement can be particularly as peace talks is still on.

Just recently the new elected Armenia president Serzh Sarksyan paid a visit to his counterpart Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow, Russia republic. During the meeting the Armenia president said he was in Moscow to extend a “big thank you” to Putin and Russia over the roles Russia plays in Armenia; though these roles were not stated but it’s fair to say that Russia and Armenia are very good friends. In his own words Serzh Sarksyan says "We (Armenia) have always highly appreciated your (Russia) help, we have never before enjoyed such an unequivocal position”. Position in this context embraces even Russia roles in stalemating the resolving of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Russia keeps challenging all odds; the new rise in Russia strength is equally connected in the new turns of events in the south Caucasus region where Russia still wants to play out its strong hold. The oil of the Caspian Sea is very important in the new upsurge of the regional economy especially for Azerbaijan. However countries like Armenia and Georgia who do not benefit from the Caspian oil deposit has to deal with it neighbors if it is to benefit from the regional wealth. Already Georgia is greatly benefiting from Azerbaijan because of the Baku- Tbilisi pipe line to the European market.

The struggle for the Caspian supremacy has not helped Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan financial capacity is becoming more robust with the sales of its oil and gas but Russia wouldn’t have fancied such achievements because it can’t imagine Azerbaijan which was once its occupied territory to be able to flex muscles. Hence Russia strategy is to indirectly or even directly ensure that Azerbaijan remains frustrated with its territorial issue.

Moscow has always compensated Yerevan loyalty to Russia with substantial gas supply at a preferential price and to an extension, security.

Armenia hopes that it will continue to enjoy same support from Moscow with Medvedev as the president just as they had with Putin. Putin will still be wielding much power as the prime minister of Russia therefore Armenia’s relationship can not be the contrary with Medvedev. Moreover Russia does not envisage pulling out its military base from Armenia in the near future. Furthermore Russia sees Armenia as a route in transporting its Caspian gas to the world market; however Azerbaijan is perceived as an antagonist to the Russia venture.

The conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh is not envisaged to end any time soon. Azerbaijan has always stated its commitment to a peaceful path to the resolution. Despite the good work of the MINSK group in resolving the issue, the role Russia had played in the past and will still be playing will not allow the conflict to be resolved amicable and in a fair way.

The war over the Nagorno-Karabakh regions of the Azerbaijan territory started in the late 1980’s but escalated to climax on the 25th into 26th of February, 1992 by way of the Khojaly massacre. Khojaly is a settlement in the Nagorno-Karabakh region with the Azerbaijanis and Armenia co-habiting. Armenia military with the help of Russia forces invaded the Khojaly region of Azerbaijan with other surrounding regions and committed different war atrocities killing men, women and children. The consequences of the Khojaly massacre includes the many displaced Azerbaijanis, the shattered homes, mines victims, and the large waste of land that use to be a source of lively hood to communities.

Pending Azerbaijan reclaiming its occupied territory, the republic will remain in records as one of the nations with the highest number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) –UNHCR statistics-. Despite the Azerbaijani Government effort and International community to assist the IDPs, yet more still remains to be done. Not until the IDPs are returned to their homeland every effort in the way of assistance will only be a case of soothing effect while the root cause of the problem remains. Resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is a key factor to solving so many adverse problems that face not just the Republic of Azerbaijan but to a larger extent the south Caucasus as a whole.